Curbed.com’s regional real estate reporting is superb. Their site is interesting and they are really on point with the style of their site.

Recently, they reported on a grim forecast that surfaced for Atlanta’s metro economy, bringing up the bad and the ugly that “planners” statewide need to consider.

The article cites ““Atlanta’s persistent unemployment, traffic congestion, a 29% loss in average per-square-foot housing prices between 2000-2010, and the fact that the city is increasingly offering a lifestyle opposite of that desired by the most desirable workers and companies. The opportunities he sees are also legion, though, and many of them simply involve re-embracing our transit roots: i.e. investments in commuter rail, continuing to capitalize on the power of our airport, making The BeltLine everything it can be and getting T-SPLOST passed.”

The AJC reported on the same Brookings Institution report that brought up these findings, stating the following about some of the vibrancy in Intown Hot’lanta:

“ One piece of evidence of the pent-up demand for walkable urban space: The only ZIP codes to actually gain housing value in the past decade were Virginia-Highland, Grant Park and East Lake. All of these were considered slums 30 years ago. Today they are among the highest price per square foot for housing in the region.”

When I decided to move Intown in 1998, I never looked back – isn’t it great to hear those stats about VAHI, GP and East Lake???

The folks at Local Market Monitor, a Cary, N.C.-based real estate research firm, helped Forbes compile a list of the top ten markets poised for a rebound. “They sorted through a plethora of housing and economic data for the 100 most populous cities and their surrounding suburbs, defined as Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Metropolitan Divisions (MSADs) by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. LMM assessed home prices over the past 12 months, unemployment rates, 12-month job growth projections, population increases from 2006 through 2009 (the most recent data available from the U.S.Census) and new-home construction rates for the third quarter of 2011 as compared to the same quarter in 2010. Home price changes over the past three years were also taken into account, as markets that lost less value in the downturn have the potential to recover and appreciate that much faster.”

Atlanta is not one of those top ten markets. “Markets that will experience further price drops this year include Atlanta, Ga. (14.4% anticipated loss), Los Angeles, Calif. (10.3% anticipated loss), Seattle, Wash. (7.5% anticipated loss), Oxnard, Calif. (6.7% anticipated loss), and  foreclosure capital Las Vegas, Nev. (6.4% anticipated loss).”

Housingpredictor.com calls for a 6.7% drop in Atlanta – they’ve been about right for the 4 years that I’ve been reading their forecasts…

So, all real estate is local. Using the word “ATLANTA” does not accurately depict specific real estate submarkets. As an example, Decatur prices are up year over year and are trending upward. Inventory is down and a seller’s market exists in some cases. Some Buckhead neighborhoods are up and trending upward. Some Eastside neighborhoods are in flux and trending downward until the public schools get reoriented and reset for an honorable future.

So, stay tuned and know the facts and the data that drive your street’s value – your property’s value. The macroeconomists are not wrong about 2012 in “Atlanta,” so filter these forecasts with a hyperlocal lens, and please call me if I can help you with the valuation of a property, OK?

The Fairfield site is loaded with information – here’s the links page if you want to do some further reading.

First, the biggest news of the week – The Mortgage Insurance Tax Break is Gone.

On Dec 31st, Congress let 58 tax code benefits expire, including credits for home energy improvements, credits for builders of energy-efficient new houses, and home buyer tax deductions for mortgage insurance.  The mortgage insurance deduction has been a key mortgage financing benefit in place since 2007 which benefitted home buyers with income of $110k per year or less.  Combined with the new fees they are imposing on Conventional loans this Spring, Congress continues to increase the costs of homeownership rather than reduce them!  It should be noted that Congress still has the power to reauthorize all or some of the write-offs retroactively this year, but the current political atmosphere raises doubts about that happening.  Its time to let our elected representatives know how we feel!

FHA Extends Anti-Flipping Waiver Through End of 2012
To cut down on fraud, FHA has had an anti-flipping regulation in place for years preventing a seller from selling a home owned less than 90 days.  In an effort to accelerate the resale of foreclosed properties, FHA waived this rule in Feb of 2010 and then extended the waiver through the end of 2011.  FHA recently announced that they are extending the waiver through the end of 2012. This announcement has been well publicized but its important to understand that this is simply an extension of FHA’s policy for most of the last two years.  So, although this is good news, it is not necessarily new news.  It is also important to understand that most every FHA investor has "overlays" on top of the stated FHA guidelines that make the FHA guidelines more restrictive.  The most liberal overlays allow for the anti-flipping waiver BUT with the strict limitation that the resale price not be more than 20% greater than the acquisition price, even if there were renovations.  An exception would need to be granted for a resale value of more than 20%.  The bottom line is always be careful when your FHA buyers are buying homes that the seller has recently acquired.  Check to see when the seller acquired the property and make the Loan Officer aware of the acquisition date if it was within the last six months. 

What Every Lender Wants the Realtor to Know When Writing a Contract:
The “Financing Contingency Exhibit” is a wonderful addendum to the Purchase & Sale Agreement and something that the realtor should make a standard part of every financed transaction.  Here are a few tips when completing this form:

Always show the interest rate a good .25% to .5% more than the prevailing rate in case rates rise between the binding contract date and the rate lock-in date.

If you are not sure how much the buyer will put down, shoot high on the loan-to-value showing the highest % you anticipate the buyer will finance.

Selling Agents, always maximize the number of days that your buyer has to satisfy the Financing & Appraisal Contingencies.  Anything less than 20 days will not leave enough time for the lender to get the home appraised and the loan approved.  Be firm that at least 20 days are needed!

Listing Agents, always write the name of your most trusted Loan Officer in the space underneath Section 2.  What an opportunity to require the buyer making an offer on your listing to pre-qualify with your favorite Loan Officer. 

Rate Update

The news from Europe has been mostly negative over the last week.  Economic growth in Germany has been slower than expected.  Negotiations on restructuring Greek debt also have not progressed as planned.  S&P is downgrading the debt of several European countries, including France.  Lastly, the European Central Bank (ECB) has given no indication that it will provide relief to the troubled countries.  As a result of all of this turmoil, investors shifted funds to relatively safer investments, including US mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which has helped mortgage rates move lower. However, we already know that Congress is imposing new fees on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac later this spring that are going to cause mortgage rates to bump up as much as .25% over the weeks ahead.  Anyone in the market to lock a mortgage rate should do it as soon as possible.

Looking Ahead
The most significant economic data due out this week are the monthly inflation reports.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of "intermediate" goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Wednesday.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Thursday.  CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers.  In addition, Industrial Production, an important indicator of economic growth, will come out on Wednesday.  Housing Starts will be released on Thursday, and Existing Home Sales will come out on Friday.  Philly Fed and Empire State round out a very busy week.

Please call me or call Jeff if we can answer any of your specific questions…

Why? Well, because most of these properties are not worth buying…

But, this one is…

for the right price.

This one belongs to one of my clients, who needs to short sell this house in Oakland City – I listed it for $9000 in September – it remains unsold.

We are relisting the property soon, and I am thinking that $4000 is the right price. His mortgage lender may differ with me, but I let them set the $9000 price back in September. No offers followed!

Some of you may be thinking – huh? what? Is he really talking about this like it matters? Well, my client matters – he needs this short sale!

So, check out these FMLS statistics – 8854 houses sold for under $50,000 in Georgia last year, 1422 in Atlanta, 147 in 30314, 265 in 30310, and 205 in 30315.

363 houses sold for under $10,000 in Georgia last year, 266 in Atlanta, 39 in 30314, 73 in 30310 and 47 in 30315.                   

Only 4 houses sold for under $10,000 in Decatur’s 30032 – the most downtrodden Decatur (unincorporated Dekalb) zip code. 285 houses sold for under $50,000 in that zip.

Now, looking back just one year, there were 6279 residential properties sold in 2010 in Georgia for less than $50,000. That means that there were 2575 more sales last year for under $50,000 than there were during the year before.

There is a seller’s market in this price range, for the most part, so why did the $9000 house not sell quickly?

Because it is overpriced by 50%. Because, for $9000, on the edge of Oakland Park, this house is overpriced. Simple, right?

To relate this phenomenon back to any other price segment of the market, I simply suggest that the street matters most, and that chasing the market is never good, especially when  about 7-8 other houses per month are selling in the same zip code in the same price range.

Check this out and see how well this carries. On any given listing at higher price points I can probably find the same basic statistic – 7 or 8 other houses will sell nearby that month, while the overpriced listing languishes.

This will be my last article about houses in this price range for a while, but I’ll continue to make these same points about value. Because, most real estate listings are still initially overpriced and either chasing the market, or failing to sell. Lets use the bottom of the bottom of the real estate market to remind us that pricing matters most!

We are already seeing that in places like Decatur, and other high performing real estate submarkets in Buckhead, and in some of the suburbs.

Anecdotal evidence shows me that activity in the lower price ranges, particularly under $100,000, is strengthening while activity in the higher priced submarkets continues to show signs of stability.

The recovery is underway but it will be some time before we see prices firming across all segments of metropolitan Atlanta.

We will continue to see depressions in places like Lakewood, Vine City and even in some of the Atlanta neighborhoods  that are going through school struggles.

Here’s my video with the claim – stay tuned in 2012!

She wrote me today and told me that when she googled “Atlanta real estate” the Intown Insider showed up on the first page. Cool!

This may not always be the case, but today, it is. Check it out here at this link to the google page for the search terms “Atlanta real estate,” and you’ll see about 262,000,000 results.

My article entitled The recent quarter in metro Atlanta real estate, dated July 2011, appears among the first 13 results today.

Again, cool.

Trulia, my favorite real estate monster site, published this piece today about “How to safeguard your online reputation.”

Trulia’s best advice to me today is: “Proactively use this to your advantage and create online content that demonstrates your knowledge and expertise.”

So, what being on the first page of google means to me today is that I just had a significant life lesson reinforced.

That lesson is that proactivity rules. Proactivity is the #1 habit of highly effective people.

Lets see if I can keep this up!

To tell you the truth, I have not ever spent a single dime on SEO for this website and I get a call every week from some numbskull in another part of the USA that wants to put me on the first page of google for “Atlanta real estate” with their magical web enhancements for $500-2000 per month.

I think I’ll just keep blogging…Thank you world wide web.

The long tail is right here, and if you have a property to list for sale or lease in Intown Atlanta or Decatur, then call me and lets talk about online marketing results that will get your house sold for top dollar in the fastest amount of time possible…my 3 year average is 28 days. My listings sell at an average of 96.3% of list price.

And today, I’m #1 on google.

For the past few months, Atlanta property, dollar for dollar, is better to buy than to rent – on average – across many counties.

The BUY NOW versus RENT NOW numbers get even more dramatic for buying now when certain submarkets are studied. Here’s two examples:

1. just about any close in condominium, loft or townhome

2. just about any house in a great Intown school district

My friend Scott Mauldin sent me a 16 page document yesterday entitled “Housing: A Time To Buy” written by some of his folks at JP Morgan Asset Management – the overwhelming evidence supports buying in the best Intown Atlanta submarkets – is it time for you to make the move up?

You can find the article within two clicks, here.

Sellers can still get the highest possible list-to-sell ratio and sell their homes as quickly as possible if they are willing to put their trust in two time trusted principles of real estate: condition and price.

Since 72% of all sales transactions are “equity” transactions – not distressed, not some odd luxury transaction and not an estate sale, the chances are favorable for sellers who “get it.”

Here are the the top ten features that attract buyers according to the Keller Williams Realty International survey conducted for our 2011 Market Navigator booklet.

1. Location – favored by 69% of buyers

2. Neighborhood – favored by 55% of buyers

2. Floor plan – favored by 37% of buyers

3. Updates to the house – favored by 36% of buyers

4. Curb appeal – favored by 30% of buyers

5. Square footage – favored by 28% of buyers

6. Back yard – favored by 25% of buyers

7. A great kitchen – favored by 23% of buyers

8. Lot size – favored by 22% of buyers

9. Age of the home – favored by 18% of buyers

10. the final 4 – Garage, Style, Flooring and Commuting range – all favored by about 15% of buyers

If you are selling real estate in metro Atlanta – if you are distressed by a real estate problem in metro Atlanta – please call me. I am a capable navigator in this market, and I would appreciate the opportunity to help you accentuate the positive with your property…

For the three years that I have followed the writing at Housing Predictor, they have been almost 100% accurate, and they have tracked closely with a statement that I heard from my business coach back in October 2007.

He stated:

“The median price for a metro Atlanta single family house will fall by 35-45% in the next 3-5 years.”

I mentioned that to many other folks at the time, and most disagreed…it sounded unbelievable to most people just three years ago…looking back, through the use of this chart, I remember the lowest lows, and I remember the 2010 stimulated highs…

Housing Predictor’s 2011 Georgia forecast is on track with his prediction and the writers believe that due to weak consumer confidence and unemployment, Atlanta’s median price will be down another 8.2% at the end of 2011.

Do you have confidence that this is the best market ever for purchasing real estate in Georgia? If not, then you should…

This is another story where the value of knowing Hank Miller comes in handy. I represent some folks who wanted to buy a house on a lakefront. More like a pond front, but we’ll call it a lakefront. Not Lake Altoona or Lanier – a small suburban lake.

Well, the buyers didn’t think that the seller and the listing agent were realistic with their pricing. The property had about 100’ of lakefront.

So, I talked to this listing agent and she encouraged me to consider the value of lake frontage – she lives on lake frontage – she’s sold many lake fronts  – she told me that they always have to be “comped” against other lake lots and she told me that appraisers routinely will go outside of distinct zip code and school district level geographic parameters in order to make an accurate comparable for a lakefront property.

She encouraged me to look at lake lots all over and to go back further than 6 months of sales – she states that appraisers will routinely adjust for the sales date and geography in order to find accurate, like kind comps for special lakefront properties.

I checked that out with my friend Hank, the best appraiser in Georgia, and Hank says that this listing agent is full of BS. Hank is a licensed appraiser with 5,000+ reports in Georgia under his belt. Here are a few of his comments:

“Water is the new asbestos for insurance companies.” (meaning lake frontage ain’t so great)

“Any appraiser would make only a nominal adjustment for the lake frontage.”

He says that “the listing agent needs to get her head out of her A** – we ain’t talkin’ about Altoona or Lanier here”

When I told him that the house also had a permanently installed radon mitigation system, he suggested that we move on…