In this article in Business Week last month, Ivan Boesky’s cousin (that’s right, Ivan Boesky’s cousin) says this about the Shanghai Stock Market (it’s the worst performing market in all of Asia - and that is saying something!)

“We feel our feet are touching bottom now,” he says hopefully, adding that next year could be good since stocks have fallen so far, so fast. “We’ve set the bar very low now.” In the new year, “We are set up now for some very easy layups.”

Which leads me to state that hope is not a strategy, Mr. Boesky.

Nevertheless, I thought of Mr. Boesky’s (I like saying Mr. Boesky) mention of “lay ups” when I contemplated the latest Intown Atlanta real estate numbers through September 2008.

So…Only 12 out of 100 Intown Atlanta Sellers are shooting lay ups.

And… only 36 out of 100 are scoring at all.

Watch for more details, but here’s 3 of the most interesting things that I gleaned from my handwritten notes at a presentation yesterday.

1. we had a 500% increase in $750K-1M price range “bank-owned foreclosures” between 2007 and 2008

2. if a seller is priced right, on average they gross 96.4% of their original list price - if a seller is priced wrong, on average they gross 87.6% of original list price…and stay on the market for 106 days, versus only 34 days for properties that are priced right

3. We have over 90,000 listings right now  - we’ve had 26,876 closed sales in the metro area through September - that’s down 23.4% from last year - so, out of 100 given listings, only 12 out of 100 go to closing without a price reduction, and only 36 make it to closing at all

The gap remains too wide and the buyer’s market is here to stay.

The opportunity to buy a first house, a second or a third property, or a “move up” dream home, is  inspirational right now, even if all that you have is 5%-10% or at the most, a 20% downpayment.

The banks are more strict now, the banks that are left standing - and we’ve definitely gained a lot by stifling the criminals and profligates in that business.

My friend Paul in Shanghai tells  me that the Chinese “don’t f*#@ around.”

I wish that Intown Atlanta sellers wouldn’t f*#@  around so f*#@ing much.  

With that wish in mind, I will do my very best to be stable and calm and try to help as many people as I can in the wake of the flood - even, sometimes, helping a few of the 88 out of 100 who “f*#@ around!”

At least 24 out of those 88 will sell their home in a somewhat timely manner.

Stay tuned - we’ll have lots of charts and graphs and video coming.

Well, you could argue that what happened to East Point residential sales prices is what happened to the rest of the close in metropolitan Atlanta neighborhoods - sales prices peaked in June 2006 and have been in decline almost ever since – 25 out of the past 26 months through August 2008. But, that would not tell the whole story…

East Point is loaded with cute brick houses in good condition that are available for competitive prices.

For years, East Point didn’t have the bars, restaurants and community nightlife that made the neighborhood as special as East Atlanta Village or Decatur or Kirkwood, but in the past 7-8 years that has all changed.

Thumbs Up Diner arrived … 

The Corner Tavern has been holding it down for almost 4 years …

The edges of East Point now have easy access to lots of retail, a movie theatre and tons of restaurants. All this and you are only 10 minutes from downtown Atlanta. All this and some of the best maintained 20th century houses in the entire city. Good streets and good neighbors. East Pointers are value buyers who love sturdy houses, BIG lots and cool neighbors.

When I moved to Atlanta in 1988, fresh out of Furman University, this “good old boy” East Point native who happened to be in the mortgage business told me - “buy a house in East Point now!” He stated that East Point is close to Atlanta and the airport, and that lots of young hipsters were buying sturdy old houses down there for way less than $100,000.00. That was the late eighties. I knew he was on to something, but I never bought a house in East Point.

I’m writing this article because I helped a really cool client buy a sturdy 1924 built brick house on Linwood in East Point back in 2005, and now she wants to sell it. The house has preserved period architecture, a decorative fireplace, a roomy eat-in kitchen with a butler’s pantry and oak floors, an added family room, a master bedroom with private bath, 2 other sizeable bedrooms and another full bathroom with a marble floor, a sweet rocking chair front porch, crown moulding, glass door knobs and one of the most beautiful and plush gardens across the deep backyard - featuring 3 ponds, gorgeous plants and statuaries. She bought the house in 2005 for $197,500.00.

Now she wants to sell it in the declining market of fourth quarter 2008, and based on what I just reviewed - prices are down 15% FROM LAST YEAR on average in her particular submarket of east Point - 3/2 brick houses built before 1970.

So, I commissioned Greg, The Pricemaster to work up a “clustering analysis” for our client - his ability to look at broader trends and to digest tedious real estate data is exceptional, and here is what he found… Read the rest of this entry »

A potential Buyer named Penelope (named after Penelope Pitstop?) asked this question on Trulia Voices this week and she got this response from me, in addition to 11 other answers…here’s an edited version…

Yes, Atlanta is a declining market. Steve in Rohnert Park is right and better data sources than Case Schiller back up that roughly 10% decline.

My latest advisory letter from Steve Palm states - for a broad “metro Atlanta” market - the word “decline” 14 times. If he put the bottom line up front then you would read this:

“Oil prices have been falling and the government is doing their best to stabilize our financial markets. In order for a housing uptick to occur in 2009 oil has to fall and stay down and the financial markets must have the ability to finance home mortgages.”

That being said, here is Steve Palm’s September 21 letter in it’s entirety… Read the rest of this entry »

Frontdoor is the web franchise of the phenomenally successful Home and Garden Television network.

The website has been live for about 5 months or so, and it is still in Beta. Nevertheless, it’s media rich and loaded with bright insights on residential real estate. Great domain name too!

This article on real estate trends is timely and indisputable. It is a must read and it is loaded with links to many other pertinent articles that take each trend to a deeper level of understanding.

My third favorite trend is trend #10: Flipping is out, buying and holding is in.

Falling prices and a large inventory of unsold homes mean there are more potential bargains out there. Real estate investors are taking advantage of current conditions, knowing that a down market is the best time to get a good deal.

My second favorite trend is trend #6: Urban areas are making a comeback.

The U.S. experienced a mass exodus to the ‘burbs after World War II, but homebuyers are now regaining interest in downtown areas. Urban core homes are often more expensive per square foot than their suburban counterparts, but many buyers are willing to pay a premium to avoid long commutes and urban sprawl.

My favorite trend is trend #4: Bad real estate agents will get weeded out.

In the past, homes practically sold themselves, and enterprising people became part-time real estate agents. Nowadays, home sellers are looking for premium service and expertise from Realtors in exchange for the 6 percent commission. And savvy buyers want an agent who offers insight and knowledge not available on the Internet. So be selective — only the best Realtors will succeed in this market.

I told my business partner Greg the other day that I believe that we will lose at least 30% more of the “Licensed Real Estate Salesperson” headcount in metropolitan Atlanta, and that we will keep it that way for a long time.

Earlier today, I bet my friend Eric Benjamin, “The King of Decatur and Tucker too” that we would lose 30% of the headcount at the Atlanta Board of Realtors - he says that we will lose only 20%. We will complete the bet next October!

It would be a really good thing to cull the herd of boring, part-time real estate agents who purvey their mediocre talent with misspelled contracts, disorganized business practices and of course, my favorite - the poorly assembled, non-erect sign. I think that going forward, we should make the tests harder and that the bar should be raised for continuing education of licensees. Many agents have been part of the problem for a long, long time.

Otherwise, in the market of the moment many agents are doing a very poor job selling houses - if you want a serious marketing plan, a serious team of fiduciaries and multitudinous exposure on the worldwide web at over 30 unique websites, plus lots more than what is becoming very average in our business, then The Rootdown Group is one phone call away.

We are very good Listing agents and we call it like we see it.

We are very good Buyer’s agents and we are veterans at the closing table.

We have a twenty year business plan and Dana, Greg and I are the core group who will grow our practice and who will keep helping people buy and sell real estate for years to come.

Think Intown, Think Rootdown.

Y’all like our new logo?

I turn to Chartmaster Chuck. Right here, at IntownInsider.com, we turn to him a lot for:

* studies of the price reduction effect
* further studies of the price reduction effect
* cool charts like this one about how only 23% of all Intown Atlanta houses were priced right in H12008

I turn to Chris Martenson. Take “The Crash Course.” Seriously, go to this man’s site and take the “The Crash Course.” It will change your life.

Weekly, I turn to John Mauldin. I received his Thoughts From The Frontline newsletter this morning on my Blackberry when I woke up at 3:30 a.m.

This week - The Title – “Betting on Financial Armageddon.” His clear and cogent restatement of stories that he has been telling about “Commercial Paper” is worthwhile reading. Read it if you want a serious, compelling summary of recent financial events.

If you are a real estate agent, or if you are helping others or helping yourself navigate the curiosities of real estate holdings today, then you should read John Mauldin and whomever else he recommends that you read.

I had a similar epiphany with John Mauldin last Saturday morning around 3:30am – The Title of that article – “Housing: Are We At Bottom?” 

John is a human vacuum of financial insight and his connections will help you make better life decisions.

I read through that article on “The Bottom” on my Blackberry while thinking deep thoughts about the days ahead as I lie awake, and as my lovely wife Laura and beautiful daughter Kaylie sleep beside me.

No matter what politicians and bankers and TV’s talking heads tell you, just know this - my daughter has already got all of this figured out! When she starts talking, she will let us know. She’s got your bottom right here…

Now, what am I doing up at 3:30 a.m.? I’m being the Intown Insider and I encourage you to get your real estate on.

I turn to John Adams. He is the most trusted voice in Atlanta real estate. This article about appreciation really crystallizes the paradox of pricing and pricing right - for the market of the moment. This article is loaded with “post-foreclosure” property purchasing insight. His website, his classes and his radio show are the proof - if you are nervous or uncertain about Intown Atlanta and Decatur real estate values and holdings right now, keeping abreast of John’s thoughts is worth your time. You’ll feel better about things.

I turn to Steve Palm. Steve’s insights about FMLS data every month keep me and my clients informed with raw, real data. His latest letter about metropolitan Atlanta real estate is based on cogent, detailed analysis of the real numbers.

Any real estate agent that you meet who spews BS about “up and coming areas” and who gives you advice on flipping properties needs to memorize this statement after you kick their ass:

Atlanta’s “…downturn started 3rd quarter 2006 and it has yet to turn positive since then. Not only has the market not turned positive, but we have yet to hit a bottom. We are in a recession and it will not turn positive till our economy starts
improving…When our housing market turns around, closing prices will rebound quickly. I believe that prices have neared a bottom, so this is a great time to buy. There is over a 14 month supply of homes out there, so your buyer will have much to choose from.Our months-supply of homes is at an all-time high, but there were actually 4,500 less homes for all single family on the market at the end of July versus the same time last year. The reason, our demand has been just so much lower.
There were 7,112 expired listings in July for all single family. This was 1,100 more than July 2007 and 6,300 more than 2000. There were 5,993 expired listings for single family detached and 1,119 expired listings for condos & townhomes.Days-on-market was 88.9 in July for all single family and the lowest reported DOM since August 2007, but still 3.7 days higher than July 2007. When the going gets tough, the tough get going. Anyone involved in residential real estate that makes it through this downturn will be positioned extremely well when the turnaround happens…”

I turn to Seth Godin. He says that in order to be trusted in a low trust world, you must tell authentic stories. Read Seth’s blog - here he is telling us about “What Advertising Can’t Fix.” 

Over the next few weeks, just remember that advertising will not fix what is wrong, especially if that advertising comes from a certain political party, a certain political candidate or a certain salesperson of any stripe who asks you to trust them.

They are on Main Street and on Wall Street.