Why do I care who “Tyler Durden” is? Because “Tyler Durden” told the world about an article that Charles Hugh Smith wrote.

Tyler operates a blogsite called Zero Hedge. Tyler is anonymous.

On April 11, Charles Hugh Smith asked “What if housing is done for a generation?”

He states that “declining employment, income and household formation are complex, long-term trends. If they continue trending down, so too will housing.”

My daughter is 4 years old and she is the generation ahead – she has immense, positive  possibilities for her future. Massive positive changes for the good of mankind are ahead. Futuristic amazement.

She’s a child that will grow up Intown – some of the massive, positive changes that are coming her way are driven by a demand for sustainable Intown living, a demand for automation and efficiency, and a demand for high touch, in a world of high tech – you name it – cool stuff is ahead.

So, does that mean that the average value of residential housing across the United States will go up over the next twenty years?

NO.

The generation ahead is simply looking for good stewardship from us. Think about that…

And the generation ahead in housing is what the bright minded stewards of 2012 should be thinking about, submarket by submarket – street by street.

Because, in the larger pool, when Charles Hugh Smith puts up this graph and states “What few are willing to entertain is the possibility that housing is no longer the foundation of middle class wealth, and that its decline is structural, not cyclical” you gotta take him seriously…

Just don’t own in markets that have a greater propensity to exist on the collapsing side of this graph…that’s what I’ll tell my daughter when she buys her first house.

And, to Scott Mauldin, a local Atlanta CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™  and one cool dude that I know from college – thanks for introducing me to Tyler Durden. No matter how dark he gets…

A client of mine motivated me to give my opinion on a simple valuation idea.

He wants to base future value of a 2012 purchase on the recent value of the same piece of real estate back in 2007.

I suggested that if 2007 is a baseline for him…not so fast.

Literally – not so fast. A return to 2007 prices is likely to be decades away, and for only select US submarkets. Others are literally stagnant or dead. Unrecoverable.

The US real estate market is not best measured today, or in the future by using 2007 as a baseline for quick comparison.

Gary Keller’s message is North American in scope, but his mindset can help anyone see the bigger real estate picture on their Intown Atlanta or Decatur street.

I wouldn’t be bold enough to state that about 2007 unless I heard that from someone else – I’m no expert, but Gary Keller is. I’ve known Gary for 14 years. He’s the best agent in the country and he built Keller Williams Realty over the past 29 years as the real estate agency of choice – we’ll be #1 worldwide, next year.

I began my career with KW in 1999.

Gary wrote the Millionaire Real Estate Investor book about 7 years ago – I have not ever studied a better book on the subject. You should buy a copy. http://www.kellerink.com/products/millionaire-real-estate-investor-single

Gary delivers an annual vision speech at the KW convention – he’s as smooth as they get and he never pulls punches. Great speaker on a dry subject – stats and charts galore.

If you have 180 minutes to learn more about US real estate, and if you think BIG enough to apply what you learn to your property interests in Atlanta, then watch these videos of Gary last month delivering his Vision Speech for 2012…

http://kwconnect.kw.com/connect/user/share.jsp?p=5426&sh=40544 part 1

http://kwconnect.kw.com/connect/user/share.jsp?p=7045&sh=40545 part 2

http://kwconnect.kw.com/connect/user/share.jsp?p=7046&sh=40546 part 3

http://kwconnect.kw.com/connect/user/share.jsp?p=7047&sh=40547 part 4

http://kwconnect.kw.com/connect/user/share.jsp?p=7048&sh=40548 part 5

http://kwconnect.kw.com/connect/user/share.jsp?p=7049&sh=40549 part 6

http://kwconnect.kw.com/connect/user/share.jsp?p=7050&sh=40550 part 7

http://kwconnect.kw.com/connect/user/share.jsp?p=7051&sh=40551 part 8

http://kwconnect.kw.com/connect/user/share.jsp?p=7052&sh=40552 part 9

I want my clients to succeed at the highest levels with their real estate goals. I also would rather challenge their thinking now, rather than disappoint them later with blown expectations.

Gary helps us understand the bigger picture, and he helps Intown Atlanta buyers and sellers set realistic expectations.

The headline sounds gloomy doesn’t it?

The good news is that we are only talking about distressed sales being 30% of the FOR SALE market.

The venerable Atlanta Business Chronicle reported on the latest CoreLogic numbers in a recent article: “In metro Atlanta, 37.4 percent, or 456,242, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity in the fourth quarter of 2011. This compares with 34.5 percent, or 420,160 properties in the third quarter.

Another 6.8 percent, or 83,248 residential properties, were in near negative equity in the fourth quarter, compared with 7 percent, or 85,819, in the third quarter.”

Negative equity is another term for underwater. Underwater means that a homeowner owes more to a bank or to more than one bank, than their property is worth for sale.

These 456,242 homeowners are spread throuhout metro Atlanta.

Some neighborhoods have a higher concentration than others.

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist with CoreLogic states: “The high level of negative equity and the inability to pay is the ‘double trigger’ of default, and the reason we have such a significant foreclosure pipeline.”

What does this mean to you?

• Not only has the percentage of distressed property SALES increased during this market shift, the percentage of distressed property ACTIVE listings continues at a high percentage of listings, also
• When Buyers have a greater percentage of distressed property listings to choose from, the likelihood of finding a lower-priced acceptable one to buy increases, forcing non-distressed property Sellers to lower their listing prices in order to compete

If you are interested in selling an Intown Atlanta or Decatur property right now, then please call us and schedule a meeting  – underwater or not, market knowledge rules. I am a Certified Distressed Property Expert, and helping underwater sellers with a short sale is one of my daily duties.

Helping an equity seller plan a move up, a move out or a move away, is always one of my daily duties.

Please call us if we can help you…underwater or not.

The conditions that drive sales are improving so it might be the right time to get your house ready for showing.

If you want to attain the highest market value for your property, you must have exceptional marketing.

Exceptional marketing – That’s where I come in.

Remember, you only get one chance to make a great first impression – so curb appeal INSIDE AND OUT is critical. And now most potential buyers are looking online first. So first impressions online are critical as well. I already provide the most extensive online exposure in the industry with the KWLS and my 93 Point Marketing Plan.

I use high-quality photography, videos and other techniques to bring the unique story of your property to life – online, in print and in person.

I inventoried my signs today, and I have 13 For Sale signs, 13 flyer boxes, and a lot of directional signage for open houses and street by street navigation, all ready for deployment – how about you call me up and we place one in your yard and cause the sale of your property, right now?

To learn more about your local market conditions and how to get the highest value for your property this spring, contact us today!

If You Know Someone Who Can Benefit From Our Real Estate Expertise, We Would Love To Help Them.

The Federal National Mortgage Association plays an even greater role in the housing market today as our nation recovers from the worst housing crisis since the Great Depression.

Making an offer to purchase a Fannie Mae HomePath property is now quick, easy, and entirely online! Beginning February 2, all offers on HomePath properties must be made using the HomePath Online Offer system.

More good news – you can set up your own profile on their site and search all you want, nationwide – it’s a feature rich site, and the bid process is way more efficient than many other methods of real estate purchase and sale today.

All offers for HomePath properties must be submitted through a licensed real estate broker/agent, so that’s where I come in!

I met Chris Gardner yesterday – the guy that wrote the book, “The Pursuit of Happyness.” He’s a remarkable man. He says some things in his recently published book “Start Where You Are” that should resonate with Atlanta sellers who really, truly want to sell their houses in 2012, even if their attempts at being ON the market haven’t worked so far.

Chris teaches a lesson that should resonate with you if you are among the more than 50% of all listed sellers in the past few years, that failed to sell.

Chris learned this lesson from his Mother one night while they were watching an old Western TV show – “The cavalry ain’t coming!”

Here’s a further look into what that means, from page 33 of his recent book:

“yes, I can speak to factors outside of my control and blame them for the predicament or make excuses about why things didn’t work out like they should have…maybe it’s all true, but that doesn’t change where I am…”

Are you someone who wants to sell your house in 2012, in spite of failed attempts in previous years?

Mr or Ms. Seller – what do you think stopped your home from selling?

“It’s the market.”

Here’s a few questions to ponder…

What did your previous agent do that you liked best about them and their services?

What do you wish they would have done better?

What would you expect from the next agent you choose?

If you are an expired, withdrawn or otherwise crestfallen Intown Atlanta or Decatur seller, then I would like to apply for the job of selling your home.

Are you familiar with the techniques that I use to sell homes?

If not, then when would be a great time for me to stop by and show you?

Zillow, with all of it’s pitfalls, can’t be all wrong.

Whenever someone tells me about a Zestimate, I just say, please speak with a Zappraiser about that. I’m in the business of selling houses, not zestimating.

Metro Atlanta’s home values fell 12.9 percent in 2011, according to Zillow ’s Real Estate Market Reports.

The area’s home values averaged $109,100, which was down 37.9 percent from the market’s peak several years ago.

So, with the fourth quarter numbers in, here’s a little bit of a forecast for 2012:

“…Fortunately, against a backdrop of modest further declines in home values, we expect that home sales will pick up briskly this year as affordable prices bring more buyers to the table, especially investors and second-home buyers.”

Zillow does not forecast a definitive national bottom until 2013 and predicts a national decline of 3.7 percent in 2012. Click here for more….”

Curbed.com’s regional real estate reporting is superb. Their site is interesting and they are really on point with the style of their site.

Recently, they reported on a grim forecast that surfaced for Atlanta’s metro economy, bringing up the bad and the ugly that “planners” statewide need to consider.

The article cites ““Atlanta’s persistent unemployment, traffic congestion, a 29% loss in average per-square-foot housing prices between 2000-2010, and the fact that the city is increasingly offering a lifestyle opposite of that desired by the most desirable workers and companies. The opportunities he sees are also legion, though, and many of them simply involve re-embracing our transit roots: i.e. investments in commuter rail, continuing to capitalize on the power of our airport, making The BeltLine everything it can be and getting T-SPLOST passed.”

The AJC reported on the same Brookings Institution report that brought up these findings, stating the following about some of the vibrancy in Intown Hot’lanta:

“ One piece of evidence of the pent-up demand for walkable urban space: The only ZIP codes to actually gain housing value in the past decade were Virginia-Highland, Grant Park and East Lake. All of these were considered slums 30 years ago. Today they are among the highest price per square foot for housing in the region.”

When I decided to move Intown in 1998, I never looked back – isn’t it great to hear those stats about VAHI, GP and East Lake???

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects to see mortgage originations fall from an estimated $1.2 trillion in 2011 to $900 billion in 2012.

I went to google images to find something “rosy.” I found this  – a photo of a “Rosy lipped batfish.”

The Rosy lipped batfish is a rather apt spokesfish for this 2012 forecast…

Here are some choice excerpts from their always thorough review of the year ahead.

‘The drop will be driven by a significant decline in refinance originations, while purchase originations will increase only slightly. The economy will see another year of anemic growth in 2012, and then will grow somewhat faster in 2013. Refinance originations are expected to fall despite low mortgage rates as economic uncertainty lingers and fewer eligible borrowers remain”
“However, the uncertainty is not one-sided. We also see a path for the economy that could lead to above-trend growth in 2012. Housing inventory and shadow inventory is declining steadily. A more robust housing market recovery could spur faster overall growth. The odds of this scenario, however, are low and we think the most likely outcome is another year of frustratingly slow economic growth and stubbornly high unemployment.”

“We expect that mortgage rates are at or near their low points, but we have been wrong on this call before. Our rate forecast assumes that the Fed maintains short-term rates near zero for the next two years, and also assumes that mortgage-Treasury spreads remain wide, given the current supply and demand imbalance in the market. If the economy tips into recession, rates would stay lower for longer, but we do not anticipate they would drop significantly. If the economy recovers more quickly, even with the Fed’s Operation Twist, longer-term rates could rise faster.”

“A faster economic recovery led by the housing market would mean faster home price growth and more sales volume, increasing purchase originations somewhat, but would cut off refinance volume sooner than in our forecast.”

Here’s the forecast summary: 

• Slow, sloggy GDP growth

• The unemployment rate will increase slowly and will continue to slog for the next decade

• Fixed mortgage rates are expected to remain low by historical standards, finishing 2011 at around a 4.5 percent average for the year, falling slightly to 4.4 percent for 2012 and climbing back up to 4.9 by 2013.

• 2012 home sales will mirror the sales performance of 2011 nationwide, and new home sales will lead some growth in 2013

• Certain markets are showing year over year appreciation

• Purchase originations will likely decrease in 2011 from 2010, totaling $400 billion from an estimated $472 billion in 2010. Seeing as 2012 will likely be another year of slow economic growth, purchase originations will increase slightly to around $412 billion for the year. As the economy picks up a little more speed in 2013 and home sales and home prices also start to increase, purchase originations are expected to increase to $770 billion for the year.

• Despite lower mortgage rates people have “REFI” burnout and with rates at historic lows, many won’t return for “another” REFI – weak appraisals have hurt this phenomenon as well

Here’s some love for the MBA, who provided most of the content of this post…

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is the national association representing the real estate finance industry, an industry that employs more than 280,000 people in virtually every community in the country. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the association works to ensure the continued strength of the nation’s residential and commercial real estate markets; to expand homeownership and extend access to affordable housing to all Americans. MBA promotes fair and ethical lending practices and fosters professional excellence among real estate finance employees through a wide range of educational programs and a variety of publications. Its membership of over 2,200 companies includes all elements of real estate finance: mortgage companies, mortgage brokers, commercial banks, thrifts, Wall Street conduits, life insurance companies and others in the mortgage lending field. For additional information, visit MBA’s Web site: www.mortgagebankers.org.

Stay tuned to the Intown Insider for the Metropolitan Atlanta 2011 Q4 residential real estate statistics – coming in the next few days…you’ll find that we have a rosier 2012 outlook here in Atlanta, at certain price points and in certain neighborhoods.

The folks at Local Market Monitor, a Cary, N.C.-based real estate research firm, helped Forbes compile a list of the top ten markets poised for a rebound. “They sorted through a plethora of housing and economic data for the 100 most populous cities and their surrounding suburbs, defined as Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Metropolitan Divisions (MSADs) by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. LMM assessed home prices over the past 12 months, unemployment rates, 12-month job growth projections, population increases from 2006 through 2009 (the most recent data available from the U.S.Census) and new-home construction rates for the third quarter of 2011 as compared to the same quarter in 2010. Home price changes over the past three years were also taken into account, as markets that lost less value in the downturn have the potential to recover and appreciate that much faster.”

Atlanta is not one of those top ten markets. “Markets that will experience further price drops this year include Atlanta, Ga. (14.4% anticipated loss), Los Angeles, Calif. (10.3% anticipated loss), Seattle, Wash. (7.5% anticipated loss), Oxnard, Calif. (6.7% anticipated loss), and  foreclosure capital Las Vegas, Nev. (6.4% anticipated loss).”

Housingpredictor.com calls for a 6.7% drop in Atlanta – they’ve been about right for the 4 years that I’ve been reading their forecasts…

So, all real estate is local. Using the word “ATLANTA” does not accurately depict specific real estate submarkets. As an example, Decatur prices are up year over year and are trending upward. Inventory is down and a seller’s market exists in some cases. Some Buckhead neighborhoods are up and trending upward. Some Eastside neighborhoods are in flux and trending downward until the public schools get reoriented and reset for an honorable future.

So, stay tuned and know the facts and the data that drive your street’s value – your property’s value. The macroeconomists are not wrong about 2012 in “Atlanta,” so filter these forecasts with a hyperlocal lens, and please call me if I can help you with the valuation of a property, OK?