Just because I’ve written a few positive posts about the results of our US Presidential Election doesn’t mean that I’m letting the profligate, two-party dominated greed culture of Washington D.C. off the hook.

Fannie Mae Eases Credit to aid Mortgage Lending is one of the first mentions of the “taproot” that I feel is the primary element of the credit crisis. This article from the New York Times on September 30, 1999 is the first notice about the potential “disease” that I can identify.

The genesis of the “credit crisis” began in the lame duck Democratic congress of 1999 and the impeached presidency of Slick Willie.

Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending is an early call for caution.

Caution that many did not take.

“If they fail. the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.”

There ya go…what a shame.

The entire system of government is at stake right now. Capitalism is at stake now.

Every appropriation, every federal handout, every war, skirmish and police action, every subsidy, every useless bureau, council and agency - everything had better be on the table or else the grand idea of the United States of America is going to falter and whimper away.

What can you do?

I know one thing that you can do - get your real estate on. If you can afford to purchase real estate, then right now is a great time for you to secure yourself with sound real estate investment practices. Prices are great, inventory is plentiful, lenders want to meet with you - buy land, they stopped making it!

The Libertarian ideal of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness is one of the core ideals at stake here and a two party majority system, no matter what, is what we have to work with while we are alive and in America right now.

I think the greatest challenges to the two parties right now are:

1. The Democrats must not gloat and act like idiot cheerleaders with unlimited budgets, but they probably will. The buck stops with Barack Obama so I think that is actually a good thing.

2. The Republicans must get their business back together and regain their stance on the fundamentals of leadership. They’ve run bad campaigns and a lot less Americans are buying what they are trying to sell. A two party system is way better than unilateral control by one party. Republicans have to start knocking on doors in neighborhoods that they may not be comfortable in. They need to be more like Bobby Jindal in Louisiana, and less like Ole Strom Thurmond (R.I.P.) in South Carolina.

Let us know if we can assist you with getting your real estate on. It’s a great day to be an American and if you don’t believe me, then I don’t care!

I got a game changing e-mail this morning.

After reading the New York Times headline “Barack Obama Elected President as Racial Barrier Falls” on my Blackberry, I opened my e-mail and got this:

“The bottom of our market, I think, just hit.  Be among the first to believe this, not one of the last to hear.” Shaun Rawls, Operating Partner for 6 or 7 Keller Williams Realty market centers (I’ve lost count)  and a national leader in sales and profits among all real estate brokerages.

He’s not even 40 yet and he has been in the Atlanta real estate agency business for about 20 years. I’ve known him since 1999 - he was one of my real estate professors in the “Prerequisite Course” for a “Georgia Real Estate Salesperson” License.

He and I share a similar worldview, and that’s why I work with him. Being in business with Shaun Rawls is the singular reason why I am a licensed real estate salesperson with Keller Williams Realty, and not with some other brokerage in metro Atlanta.

So, what does that have to do with Barack Obama and a posse?

Well, it’s because Shaun also said: “Nothing will happen that you don’t make happen.  Barack Obama secured the presidency by knocking on doors.”

To be precise, Barack Obama secured the presidency because he had a posse knocking on doors, and pasting on walls…and sharing his worldview.

Shepard Fairey started a street revolution a few years ago, because he was bold enough to remind everyone that “Andre the Giant Has A Posse.” If you’ve lived in Intown Atlanta for the past decade or so, then you’ve seen something about this factual statement.

If you don’t know who Andre The Giant is, then click here to find out about this remarkable man.

If you don’t know why he has a posse, then click here.

So, what does that have to do with Barack Obama and a posse? Well, I’ll cut and paste an answer to that…

“A key element to the success of Obama’s visual campaign was Fairey’s mostly illegal dissemination tactics of wheatpasting posters on private and public property without permission, a sweet little twist in the side of the political machine that proved the artist’s steadfast adherence to his streetwise principals remained intact while working overground in such an unprecedented way. In doing so, he single-handedly inspired a nation of supporters to do the same and the Obama campaign has seen an outpouring of viral aesthetic support at a level never before realized by a political candidate.”

That quote comes from an interview with Shepard this week. Click here to read the interview.

Shepard’s distinctive artwork is a big part of Barack’s campaign success, and just like Shaun said, Barack Obama is the one who made his success happen.

But, Shepard Fairey is the one who makes sure that Barack has a posse.

To sum things up, “The bottom of our market, I think, just hit.  Be among the first to believe this, not one of the last to hear.”

Thanks for making things happen, Shepard.

If there was ever a good day in 2008 to think about getting your real estate on, then today is that day.

Seth Godin, in his new book “Tribes - We Need You To Lead Us” makes a huge, timely point on page 119.

Seth states: “The largest enemy of change and leadership isn’t a “no.” It’s a “not yet.”

The statement serves as a valid basis for how to look at what happens this week. Because, this week seems to have true “turning point” change potential for the United States of America.

This week could have true “turning point” change potential for many individuals too, way beyond the “exogenous” treasury and commerce factors that I brought up last week. Unfortunately for us individuals, the person selected to be the President of the United States of America for the next 4 years happens to be one of the exogenous factors that will mix up and affect our lives.

Many Intown Atlanta real estate purchasers, particularly first time buyers, can decide that this is the week that will be their turning point. It’s a key week for momentum as a purchaser because if you decide to make up your mind this week, to make up your mind to become a property owner, then maybe you can own real estate, your very own place, before the end of 2008.

Back to the exogenous… a significant “turning point” for the United States doesn’t mean that a third party candidate will get elected to be the President of the United States, which many of you know would truly delight me. What I think that it means is that the catalyst for a more positive geopolitical, environmental and fiscal change is eminent. That catalyst is in the form of the next president of the United States. That catalyst - who the President is - is merely symbolism over substance, but the symbolism of the day to day efforts of a bright, clear-minded President, with a sound team of well-organized people who share his worldview, with a mandate from the voters, that symbolism really matters right now.

The alternative, the status quo, the cronyism, the brainlessness, the greed, the current state of affairs - really sucks.

American citizens…at least the half of them that vote, are quite aware of the stakes here in the fourth quarter of 2008.

I just happen to believe that one major party candidate is way better than the other one this year, and unlike all of my Presidential votes since 1984, I believe that one of the major candidates would be an enemy of change, and that if he is elected, then Americans would make a “not yet” choice. Therefore, I am compelled to vote for a major party candidate for the first time since 1988.

Since 1992, I’ve voted for either Ross Perot or the Libertarian, so I’m on new turf at the voting booth today.

Nevertheless, I am convinced of my “no” choices today on every part of the ballot, and I wish you the very same confidence as you take the next important steps in your life this week.

I would like to help some Intown Atlanta buyers with conviction this week too! Of course I would, it’s what I love helping people do. Many of you are your own enemies of change, so if you just want to talk things over, I’m happy to have a little question and answer session with you.

For some of you, the time is now.

You need conviction that you can identify and purchase a real estate investment that becomes a “turning point” away from your current status quo in 2008, that you can consider as an investment in 2009 and onward.

Seth also says: “Change almost never fails because it’s too early. It almost always fails because it’s too late.”

When you vote , think of all of the reasons to not vote for the alternative. Think of all of the reasons why the alternative is not worth getting behind. Think of all of the reasons why you are sick and tired of the “same old, same old” that the alternative represents to you.

Then, vote with your “gut instinct.”

Then, think about getting your real estate on this week - it could change your life for the better in a big, big way.

Way, way, way more than your vote for President.

Read this 4th quarter forecast from Stratfor, via my friend and weekly advisor, John Mauldin.

John states: “What matters now are the “exogenous” factors: government guarantees of the commercial paper market, currency interventions, direct capital infusions, etc.

John offers a forecast from his friend George Friedman at Stratfor. “George’s team analyzes US government policy as well as the moves that are being taken by central banks and governments around the world as the private sector gets taken public all across the globe.”

I believe that anyone who cares about the Intown Atlanta real estate submarket should care about the “exogenous” or external factors that affect it.

Beyond your neighborhood, there is a geopolitical, military, and macroeconomic quagmire that appears to be insurmountable in some markets, some neighborhoods, some streets.

Companies have gone “poof!” Banks have squandered cash. Governments are getting bigger.

There is an ongoing war on terrorism.

Stratfor offers deep insight into Russia, the Middle East and other parts of the world - the link will take you to a high level intelligence briefing. I think that you will find the update to be a refreshing change of pace from the everyday news that you see on TV, and from the everyday gossip that you hear amongst neighbors.

So, make sure that you click on the slightly delayed 4th quarter forecast and get a better perspective on the rest of the world. As the article states, the US economy started the meltdown - Europe and Asia will give it its legs.

Be conservative and circumspect with your Intown Atlanta real estate decisions, OK? Call me if I can help.

In this article in Business Week last month, Ivan Boesky’s cousin (that’s right, Ivan Boesky’s cousin) says this about the Shanghai Stock Market (it’s the worst performing market in all of Asia - and that is saying something!)

“We feel our feet are touching bottom now,” he says hopefully, adding that next year could be good since stocks have fallen so far, so fast. “We’ve set the bar very low now.” In the new year, “We are set up now for some very easy layups.”

Which leads me to state that hope is not a strategy, Mr. Boesky.

Nevertheless, I thought of Mr. Boesky’s (I like saying Mr. Boesky) mention of “lay ups” when I contemplated the latest Intown Atlanta real estate numbers through September 2008.

So…Only 12 out of 100 Intown Atlanta Sellers are shooting lay ups.

And… only 36 out of 100 are scoring at all.

Watch for more details, but here’s 3 of the most interesting things that I gleaned from my handwritten notes at a presentation yesterday.

1. we had a 500% increase in $750K-1M price range “bank-owned foreclosures” between 2007 and 2008

2. if a seller is priced right, on average they gross 96.4% of their original list price - if a seller is priced wrong, on average they gross 87.6% of original list price…and stay on the market for 106 days, versus only 34 days for properties that are priced right

3. We have over 90,000 listings right now  - we’ve had 26,876 closed sales in the metro area through September - that’s down 23.4% from last year - so, out of 100 given listings, only 12 out of 100 go to closing without a price reduction, and only 36 make it to closing at all

The gap remains too wide and the buyer’s market is here to stay.

The opportunity to buy a first house, a second or a third property, or a “move up” dream home, is  inspirational right now, even if all that you have is 5%-10% or at the most, a 20% downpayment.

The banks are more strict now, the banks that are left standing - and we’ve definitely gained a lot by stifling the criminals and profligates in that business.

My friend Paul in Shanghai tells  me that the Chinese “don’t f*#@ around.”

I wish that Intown Atlanta sellers wouldn’t f*#@  around so f*#@ing much.  

With that wish in mind, I will do my very best to be stable and calm and try to help as many people as I can in the wake of the flood - even, sometimes, helping a few of the 88 out of 100 who “f*#@ around!”

At least 24 out of those 88 will sell their home in a somewhat timely manner.

Stay tuned - we’ll have lots of charts and graphs and video coming.

Well, you could argue that what happened to East Point residential sales prices is what happened to the rest of the close in metropolitan Atlanta neighborhoods - sales prices peaked in June 2006 and have been in decline almost ever since – 25 out of the past 26 months through August 2008. But, that would not tell the whole story…

East Point is loaded with cute brick houses in good condition that are available for competitive prices.

For years, East Point didn’t have the bars, restaurants and community nightlife that made the neighborhood as special as East Atlanta Village or Decatur or Kirkwood, but in the past 7-8 years that has all changed.

Thumbs Up Diner arrived … 

The Corner Tavern has been holding it down for almost 4 years …

The edges of East Point now have easy access to lots of retail, a movie theatre and tons of restaurants. All this and you are only 10 minutes from downtown Atlanta. All this and some of the best maintained 20th century houses in the entire city. Good streets and good neighbors. East Pointers are value buyers who love sturdy houses, BIG lots and cool neighbors.

When I moved to Atlanta in 1988, fresh out of Furman University, this “good old boy” East Point native who happened to be in the mortgage business told me - “buy a house in East Point now!” He stated that East Point is close to Atlanta and the airport, and that lots of young hipsters were buying sturdy old houses down there for way less than $100,000.00. That was the late eighties. I knew he was on to something, but I never bought a house in East Point.

I’m writing this article because I helped a really cool client buy a sturdy 1924 built brick house on Linwood in East Point back in 2005, and now she wants to sell it. The house has preserved period architecture, a decorative fireplace, a roomy eat-in kitchen with a butler’s pantry and oak floors, an added family room, a master bedroom with private bath, 2 other sizeable bedrooms and another full bathroom with a marble floor, a sweet rocking chair front porch, crown moulding, glass door knobs and one of the most beautiful and plush gardens across the deep backyard - featuring 3 ponds, gorgeous plants and statuaries. She bought the house in 2005 for $197,500.00.

Now she wants to sell it in the declining market of fourth quarter 2008, and based on what I just reviewed - prices are down 15% FROM LAST YEAR on average in her particular submarket of east Point - 3/2 brick houses built before 1970.

So, I commissioned Greg, The Pricemaster to work up a “clustering analysis” for our client - his ability to look at broader trends and to digest tedious real estate data is exceptional, and here is what he found… Read the rest of this entry »