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Jon Effron and I are your local economists of choice in Intown Atlanta

Jon Effron wrote this insightful article entitled “WHERE ARE ALL THE ATLANTA FORECLOSURES? on January 8 and he asked me to comment on it.

He wrote:

“Healthiest” Areas (aka lowest % distressed sales): 121,131,132,21,23,51 (Sandy Springs, Dunwoody, Buckhead, Brookhaven, Ansley Park, Virginia Highland, Morningside, Inman Park)

Most “Distressed” Areas (aka highest % distressed sales): 66,53,42,33 (Exurbian Gwinnett County, Southeast Dekalb County, South Fulton County). Note that Clayton County is not included on this chart.

This chart is, of course, just one way to evaluate a housing market, and a very broad approach at that. FMLS Area 52 is a perfect example- it covers the area spanning east of Emory, Inside The Perimeter, north of I-20 and south of I-85.  Not exactly what I’d refer to as a single sub market, and certainly one that has some very hot pockets (it doesn’t get much hotter than Decatur).  Generalities aside, I think you get the picture.

As a Realtor, I’m thrilled to see such a strong recovery afoot in Atlanta’s healthier markets.  As an Atlantan, I’m still troubled by such large pockets of real estate distress.”

I replied with this comment:

“As you know, I’m a big believer in some of the most distressed parts of our city, because I love great mid-century housing stock. I also love our oldest post-Civil war housing stock (wherever we can find it anymore).

Some of our best housing stock is located in these distressed areas.

So, indeed, it’s all local and you and I are the local economists of choice.

Here’s my forecast:

I just gotta believe that in about twenty years, when Murphy Crossing is the southside Lindbergh Station, Lakewood is Hollywood, Porsche’s Aerotropolis is in full effect, Fort McPherson is the biotech center, Vine City is where we hang out before Falcons games and the westside confluence of rail is condensed into a highly efficient multimodal site at Terminus, and then, the entire area will be draped in an Emerald Necklace called the Beltline…well at that point, I believe that all of today’s distressed Victorians of the West End, and the MCMs that line Cascade – you know the West End with that built in retail center mall and the super convenience -  and all that room off Murphy and Metropolitan where there will eventually be a Wal-mart.

Well all of that distressed 2013 real estate will have to be hot in 2033.

And smart people  in 2013 are gonna be glad they were buying low, Intown  – and all of these playaz who were buying 2000′s builds in Lithonia and Hiram in 2012 are going to wish that they bought Intown..

Because buyers can’t make great deals anymore in many of the rest of our neighborhoods – our healthiest submarkets are not for bargain hunters anymore, unless they are buying renovations.”

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