This recent article from Forbes states that “national home price data indicates that the worst of the catastrophic home price implosion is behind us.”
The folks at Local Market Monitor, a Cary, N.C.-based real estate research firm, helped Forbes compile a list of the top ten markets poised for a rebound. “They sorted through a plethora of housing and economic data for the 100 most populous cities and their surrounding suburbs, defined as Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Metropolitan Divisions (MSADs) by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. LMM assessed home prices over the past 12 months, unemployment rates, 12-month job growth projections, population increases from 2006 through 2009 (the most recent data available from the U.S.Census) and new-home construction rates for the third quarter of 2011 as compared to the same quarter in 2010. Home price changes over the past three years were also taken into account, as markets that lost less value in the downturn have the potential to recover and appreciate that much faster.”
Atlanta is not one of those top ten markets. “Markets that will experience further price drops this year include Atlanta, Ga. (14.4% anticipated loss), Los Angeles, Calif. (10.3% anticipated loss), Seattle, Wash. (7.5% anticipated loss), Oxnard, Calif. (6.7% anticipated loss), and foreclosure capital Las Vegas, Nev. (6.4% anticipated loss).”
Housingpredictor.com calls for a 6.7% drop in Atlanta – they’ve been about right for the 4 years that I’ve been reading their forecasts…
So, all real estate is local. Using the word “ATLANTA” does not accurately depict specific real estate submarkets. As an example, Decatur prices are up year over year and are trending upward. Inventory is down and a seller’s market exists in some cases. Some Buckhead neighborhoods are up and trending upward. Some Eastside neighborhoods are in flux and trending downward until the public schools get reoriented and reset for an honorable future.
So, stay tuned and know the facts and the data that drive your street’s value – your property’s value. The macroeconomists are not wrong about 2012 in “Atlanta,” so filter these forecasts with a hyperlocal lens, and please call me if I can help you with the valuation of a property, OK?