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The shrinking shadows

I responded to a Trulia Voices question yesterday from Kimberly in Maryland that asked:

What is the current shadow inventory for Atlanta, GA?

Every economist’s estimate appears to be an underestimate lately, wouldn’t you agree?


The March report from the National Association of Realtors is a pretty deep dive into estimating – I just try to get local and know my submarkets when estimating stuff like this – what is going on in Maryland that merits your curiosity, Kimberly?
Wednesday’s DM News article is at the web reference – it is entitled: “Shadows Shrink on More Distressed Sales and Fewer Delinquencies”

Key words today like “quantitative” and “easing” merit major fudge factoricity…no matter what anybody says about macroeconomics in something as large as “Atlanta,GA,” the numbers will never be 100% accurate.

“CoreLogic’s April 2011 estimate is 18 percent lower than the shadow inventory peak of 2 million units hit in January 2010. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic said, “The shadow inventory has declined by nearly one-fifth since it peaked in early 2010, in large part due to a reduced flow of newly delinquent loans in recent months. However, it will probably take several years for the shadow inventory to be absorbed given the long timelines in processing and completing foreclosures.”

Of the 1.7 million properties currently in the shadows, CoreLogic says 790,000 are seriously delinquent, 440,000 are in some stage of foreclosure, and 440,000 are already in REO.

Last time I saw a stat that attempts to answer Kimberly’s question was earlier this year – somebody charted the shadows in the major US cities and the chart had Atlanta’s shadow number at about 124,000…

Does that matter on your street???

Would you rather see a video of Britain’s legendary Shadows?

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