This article first appeared at The Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner’s page at examiner.com…

Atlanta’s median Days-On-Market (DOM) decreased slightly (-1%) in the fourth quarter 2009, compared to the same period of the previous year, remaining +10.3% higher than in 4Q 2007 and +16.4% higher than 2008 for the full year in 2009.
Many properties still failed to sell during their initial listing period in 2009, causing total DOM to increase during the market downturn.

Even though the overall measure was slightly lower in the fourth quarter of 2009, changes by price range reveal that increases occurred in all ranges except for the <$200K range.
Increases in the higher price ranges were substantial compared to those in the fourth quarter of 2008, and lower prices continue to carry Atlanta’s overall real estate demand.

The median of DOM segmented by Sales Price and New/Resale, shows increases in time on market for all but the resale segments below $300K.
The variation in increases between segments ranged from a low of -22% for Resale properties priced <$200K, to a high of +155% for New properties in the $200K-$299K price range.
The DOM measure for New Construction is subject to the point during construction at which a builder enters the listing and the listings are often longer than for resales.

Price, terms and time all have a delicate counterbalance. The significance for Atlanta sellers has been addressed here before – just because a property is on the market doesn’t mean that it’s “in” the market.

The significance for Atlanta’s buyers is that they know the difference between stale and fresh, and when a sign lingers in the front yard a stigma develops. Today’s buyers have so much inventory to choose from, that avoiding stigmatized property purchases is a pretty easy pursuit nowadays.

This article first appeared at The Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner’s page at examiner.com…

Although multiple factors may have influenced median sales prices during this market downturn, foreclosure sales have been one of the biggest.

“Expect the percentage of the portion of total sales in Atlanta represented by foreclosed properties to be high and to remain high for a few more years.”

Although the number of foreclosure sales fell somewhat after July, which contributed to somewhat more stable sales prices during that time, the impact of foreclosures in 2010 is expected to be significant.

“On the Mortgage Banker’s Association (MBA) conference call concerning the “Q2 2009 National Delinquency Survey”, MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said:

# The problem is moving to prime loans, and fixed rate prime loans. Although the delinquency rate is lower for prime fixed rate than for other loans, these loans make up 65.5% of all loans – so the increase matters.
# Brinkmann expects delinquencies to peak in mid-2010.
# Brinkmann expects foreclosures to peak at the end of 2010.”

As a lesson from 2009, properly priced properties continued to sell at a median of 97.1% of their original listing price, within a median of 23 days on market, compared to a median of 78.5% and 247 days for initially overpriced properties which made up 87% of listings in 4Q 2009.

2010 sellers should take note of the accompanying chart which reveals that as the number of foreclosure sales (red trend line) increased, the median sales price (gold trend line) of non-foreclosure properties has declined. Street for street, neighborhood for neighborhood, school district for school district if 2010 property sellers and listing agents do not know their foreclosure competition and do not comprehend the impact on appraisal of any given property at any given price point, then they are fools.

2010 buyers know that foreclosure properties and those that have been price-reduced may set up a more favorable negotiating environment for buyers, causing anxious Sellers to negotiate away more of their listing price. This is a national problem with a hyper-local impact on Atlanta’s submarkets.

“Although most of the delinquencies are in a few states – because of a combination of high delinquency rates and large populations – the crisis is widespread…historically house prices do not bottom until after foreclosure activity peaks in a certain area. Since the subprime crisis delinquency rates might be peaking, it would not be surprising if prices are near a bottom in the low end areas. But in general expect further declines in house prices – especially in mid-to-high end areas.”

Ignore the facts and join the ranks of the unsold and the continually distressed.

This article first appeared at The Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner’s page at examiner.com…

Median sales prices appear to have reached bottom in January, 2009.

But, there is a lot more to consider.
The steep declines in median sales prices seen on the chart coincided with an acceleration in the number of foreclosed properties sold in each period. Now, in 2010, the word is out that foreclosure inventory, short sale inventory and distressed selling in general will lead the market…on another downward slide.

In early May, the Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner will examine the latest charts and statistics from the first quarter of 2010. Until then, speculation abounds and a lot of the speculation is worthy of making plans for the worst, yet hoping for the best.

And, hope is not a strategy.

In the meantime, some national forecasting is worth considering. The federal government has stimulated a short term period of relative stability. The federal government stops buying mortgage backed securities soon. FHA will stiffen their loan underwriting guidelines soon. How will these factors and other macroeconomic considerations “play out” and how will they ultimately affect housing prices in metropolitan Atlanta?

* The folks at Calculatedrisk.com recently quoted Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors who is one of today’s most optimistic economists. He recently stated: “We will see weak near-term sales followed by a likely surge of existing-home sales in April, May and June … The real question is what happens in the second half of the year.”

“The NAR is currently forecasting an annualized existing home sales rate of 5.1 million homes in Q1, 5.8 million in Q2, and about 5.5 million in the 2nd half of 2010. I think those numbers are generally high – especially in the 2nd half of 2010.”

* Paul Smalera, a writer for Moneywatch.com, recently stated: “So even if you qualify for a rock-bottom rate buying may not be worthwhile in the near term. Especially not if you end up being underwater on your brand new mortgage.”

* Felix Salmon, a writer for SeekingAlpha.com, recently stated: “Throwing money at the problem will alter the amount of time it takes to finally arrive at a market-clearing, private-sector-generated level of house prices. But there’s little doubt that such a level is well below where we are right now. Which is yet another reason not to buy, at least for the time being.”

Quite a few others agree with Felix.

* Douglas A. McIntyre, who writes for 247wallstreet.com, recently stated: “The slowdown in housing sales, both for new and existing properties, also make it more likely that sellers will need to drop prices to attract buyers. Under those circumstances more mortgages will move underwater as downward pressure on prices remains a significant factor in the market.”

* Barry D. Wood, who writes about the global economy for the Huffington Post, recently stated: “What is most worrying is that foreclosures are still rising and an increasing number of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, meaning that they owe more than what the home is currently worth…of the 57 million US home mortgages, 6 million are in the distressed category, meaning that they are either in actual foreclosure or payments are seriously delinquent. Foreclosed properties drive down prices.”

* Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, told CNBC on Tuesday that there is a “corporate recovery, while the consumer continues to deteriorate.”

The catalyst, according to Whitney, is the Fed’s pulling back on purchasing mortgage backed securities (MBS).
“The asset classes of MBS and Treasurys are priced for a material correction in my opinion,” she said. “The only buyers of agency MBS are the Fed and banks, so you see how precarious that market is..If the Fed pulls back, that’s a really big deal… because there’s no substitute buyer.”

She state on Tuesday that “THE HOUSING MARKET IS SURE TO DOUBLE DIP” in this video from CNBC.

So, did Atlanta’s median real estate sales price reach bottom in January 2009?

Maybe, that depends on how deep the double dip, dips…

This article first appeared at The Intown Atlanta Examiner’s page at examiner.com…

The focus of most of the articles at The Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner’s page will be on single family housing, but a question arose today on the Trulia Voices “Question and Answer” forum that merits a little more examination.

The question is “What is the median sales price for a condo in Atlanta?”

That’s a fairly easy question to answer but a few folks requested more geographic clarity, and some questioned the intent so the questioner, a guy named Mark, further explained “I would say for the whole metro. Overall, I am looking into a condo but want to know their value in relation to a regular home…”

Here’s the answer:

$144,000.00 through the fourth quarter of 2009…was $164000 in 2008 and $174000 in 2007.
Condos, lofts and townhomes combined.
The information comes from analyzing the First Multiple Listing Service data for sold listings across eight counties – Cherokee, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, and Paulding.
That’s a 3 year slide alright…

Furthermore, median sales prices were lower in each quarter after the second quarter of 2007, until some stabilization occurred during 2009.
The median sales price during the fourth quarter of 2009 was -5.8% below that of the fourth quarter of 2008, but was nearly equal to that of the previous quarters in 2009.
By comparison, Single Family Detached residence sales prices increased by +.6% in the fourth quarter of 2009, compared to the fourth quarter of 2008.

A look at Atlanta’s median sales prices shown monthly, by year, illustrates the degree to which prices in 2009 have declined compared to other recent years going back to 2003.
Only in November and December of 2009 were median sales prices slightly ahead of the depressed prices during those months in 2008 and well below those of previous years.

Since failed listings in the fourth quarter of 2009 were 59.5% of total listings, and overpriced listings were 87% of total listings, the pressure on sellers is immense.

So, is hope alive?

Well, recovery hawkers and confidence builders touting easier money and steadier sales make their case for 2010 as a year of growth. Robert Freedman, the Senior Editor of REALTOR magazine, stated the following in a 2010 outlook article, which quotes Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors:

“Economists disagree about how the economy will fare in 2010, but they agree the recession will be firmly behind us. Yun forecasts economic growth of 2.8 percent, up from a recessionary –2.5 percent in 2009. Varvares puts growth at a more robust 4.2 percent.
Improved stock market performance, the need for business to replenish inventories, and the continuing impact of the federal government’s stimulus efforts are all playing a role in boosting the economy, they say. Supporting it all is the improvement in housing. As home prices stabilize, households feel wealthy and start spending again, which drives retail and other business growth, in turn boosting confidence and the stock market, and creating a virtuous cycle of growth.
Yun predicts home prices to grow 3.6 percent in 2010, a significant rebound from 2009’s 12.9 percent national price decline.”

Lets see how the first quarter numbers shake out – as long as Uncle Sam is holding up the housing market, the housing market has every reason to start feeling better…

This article first appeared at The Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner’s page on March 7…

The median residential real estate sales price across 8 metropolitan Atlanta counties posted a small gain of .6% during the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to the fourth quarter of 2008.

Although slight, this is also the first positive quarterly change in median sales prices in the last 3 years.

On the downside, the median sales price in the fourth quarter was lower than that of the third quarter of 2009 and the year finished -12.5% below 2008 and -24.6% lower than 2007.
To offer some perspective, here’s a restatement of recent “sales” performance – a look at how many actually “sold:”

•Out of every 100 finalized listings, 60 failed to sell and 40 sold
•Of the 40 sold listings, 27 (67%) required a price reduction, when listing prices from previous listing periods are included, in order to attract a Buyer
•Therefore, if 60 failed due to overpricing and another 27 required a price reduction in order to sell, 87 out of every 100 listings were initially overpriced in 4Q 2009, resulting in either no sale, or a sale at a much-reduced price after a much-longer listing period.

Now, is this a momentum building?

Will 2010 reveal an overall decrease, once again?

Will 2010 be the year that the market begins a sustainable recovery?

The answer lies in pricing…a successful market turnaround will only occur when that 87% number comes down…