Primary theme – first time home buyers buying <$300,000 properties are the market of the moment.
Nothing else is vibrant and healthy enough to validate, at least through December 2009.
Macro – Metro – Micro is how we look at economics – the following are just highlights – I will deliver nifty charts and deeper stats in the coming weeks.
Out of 39 FMLS areas (that’s like 14 metro counties), here’s the Metro Atlanta market of the moment…
And, we take into account previous listing periods…
* Only down in cumulative sales 5% since 2008 but down 23.1% since 2007. The market is behaving like a transitional market, even though it will remain a buyer’s market.
* September, October and November 2009 were better than 2007. Supply is smaller, and the tax credit has had a remarkable effect.
* Shadow inventory – 52 Million mortgages nationwide – 8 million are in default (30 days behind up to foreclosure) – about 5 Million are 90 days past due or are in foreclosure.
The prediction is that 6 Million houses will sell in 2010 and 1.6 Million will probably be foreclosures, nationwide.
72% of the ARM resets are in California and Florida.
In Q42009 there was a 14% increase in sales over Q42008, but condos were down 5.4%.
There are some really good statistics, but all of the really good statistics are <$200,000. 59.6% of all transactions.
In Metro Atlanta, foreclosures are at 27.4% of all sales. Gone down some <$200,000 – quadrupled >$1 MIllion.
GOOD NEWS – Median sales price posted a small gain of .6% during Q42009.
Median sales prices seem to have bottomed in January 2009.
Priced right – 97.3% of original list. 24 days to contract.
Priced wrong – 78.5% of original list. 247 days to contract. This is what denial, and every excuse looks like, on paper.
Nationally, only 2.5% of all sales occurred at $750,000 or above…
40 out of 100 properties will sell. 60 will not. Of those 40, only 13 will sell at 97.3% of list and 24 days to contract – 27 will sell at 78.5% of list and take 247 days to contract.
Sellers – Be confident when you have the right to be confident – don’t be confident when you don’t have the right to be confident.
Buyers – the rise of interest rates will erase the effect of flat and depressed pricing – the effect of the supreme buyer’s market that we are in is coming to a close and may not return for decades.
And one more thing…move up opportunities are tremendous in this market.