This photo and commentary are here to answer a question posed by Kirk Nace on Facebook today ... Kirk Nace asked  me "where do the recent spiking foreclosure numbers (as reported by the AJC today - a 27% metro increase) compare with the actual number of total sales per month? What does distressed supply v. demand ratio tell you about the future of pricing?" Here's what we know from 2009 in metro Atlanta: • As the number of foreclosure sales (red trend line) increased, the median sales price (gold trend line) of non-foreclosure properties has declined • The number of foreclosure sales fell somewhat after July 2009, likely contributing to somewhat more stable sales prices during that time Looking ahead, since January spiked "unexpectedly" (Kirk Nace and I expect this, but the feel good prognosticators don't) we expect that the metro Atlanta median sales price trend will continue to decline in 2010, particularly in the second half of the year...probably by … [Read more...]

We have “Improved Conditions!” –A year-to-year increase occurred in 4Q sales for the first time in the last 3 years –Sales in the <$200K price range rose by 14% compared to the same quarter last year – a recovery will likely start with low-priced properties –Foreclosure sales as a percentage of total sales were up slightly, but some stabilization in “distressed” properties sales may be happening –The % Sales price/Original List Price ratio improved again in 4Q 2009 compared to earlier 2009 quarters and was above that of 4Q 2008 representing the first such increase in the last 3 years –The “Failed” listing percentage is gradually falling from the peak –Supply of listings is much lower than in December, 2008 and is lower in all price ranges, nearing a “balanced” market (6 mos.) in the <$200K price range –Although still high, the percentage of transactions which followed a price reduction was lower in 4Q 2009 than in 4Q … [Read more...]

Primary theme – first time home buyers buying <$300,000 properties are the market of the moment. Nothing else is vibrant and healthy enough to validate, at least through December 2009. Macro – Metro – Micro is how we look at economics – the following are just highlights - I will deliver nifty charts and deeper stats in the coming weeks. Out of 39 FMLS areas (that’s like 14 metro counties), here’s the Metro Atlanta market of the moment… And, we take into account previous listing periods… * Only down in cumulative sales 5% since 2008 but down 23.1% since 2007. The market is behaving like a transitional market, even though it will remain a buyer’s market. * September, October and November 2009 were better than 2007. Supply is smaller, and the tax credit has had a remarkable effect. * Shadow inventory  - 52 Million mortgages nationwide – 8 million are in default (30 days behind up to foreclosure) – about 5 Million are 90 days past due or are … [Read more...]