This photo and commentary are here to answer a question posed by Kirk Nace on Facebook today …

Kirk Nace asked  me “where do the recent spiking foreclosure numbers (as reported by the AJC today – a 27% metro increase) compare with the actual number of total sales per month? What does distressed supply v. demand ratio tell you about the future of pricing?”

Here’s what we know from 2009 in metro Atlanta:

• As the number of foreclosure sales (red trend line) increased, the median sales price (gold trend line) of non-foreclosure properties has declined

• The number of foreclosure sales fell somewhat after July 2009, likely contributing to somewhat more stable sales prices during that time

Looking ahead, since January spiked “unexpectedly” (Kirk Nace and I expect this, but the feel good prognosticators don’t) we expect that the metro Atlanta median sales price trend will continue to decline in 2010, particularly in the second half of the year…probably by 8-9%.

As always, many of the Intown neighborhoods that I serve will hold up way better than others, and many of these neighborhoods are barely seeing ANY foreclosure inventory – just lots of old-fashioned overpricing and hopefulness marketing!