This post first appeared on my Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner page... John Mauldin is the most interesting and circumspect financial writer that I read. I've written about his opinions and his free weekly newsletters before. This week's Outside The Box is on point, and right on the money for today's buyers and sellers. Yes, all real estate is local. But, when I wrote about the Lakewood to Buckhead Butterfly Effect before, I meant it... John offers "financial intelligence for the informed investor" for free. Here's a few pieces of "A Closer Look at the Second Leg Down in Housing..." "In my analysis, price stands out as being the prime mover of the next leg down. "Home prices remain too high." "One of the things that Markets are best at is price discovery - the determination of a price for a specific item through basic supply and demand factors. Without the heavy hand of the government intervening, the residential real estate market is about to experience what … [Read more...]
The second leg down, is looking up, for the move up into Intown Atlanta’s residential neighborhoods
I’m not a bank, and you are not broke
This article first appeared on the Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner's page... If the bank's stance is a loss for the buyer, then the buyer can wrap things up with this classic walkaway line: "I'm not a bank, and you are not broke." (All credit for that gem goes to Sherman Gaskins.) In the case of a short sale, the stance is "I'm not a bank, and your mortgage lender is not broke." Work that one into the dialogue when emotional attachment arises. Most banks are not broke. Especially the banks and other entities that are holding, managing and listing REO foreclosures. And the Loss Mitigation departments at many of these same banks, the folks who are handling the short sales, they are empowered by massive cash reserves. These organizations are making a lot of money right now and / or they are well funded...that's a better way to put it: well funded. Knowing all of that, bank-owned real estate negotiation is really simple as long as the buyer gains strength … [Read more...]
My Examiner article entitled “Days on market counts differ widely by price range in Atlanta”
This article first appeared at The Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner’s page at examiner.com… Atlanta's median Days-On-Market (DOM) decreased slightly (-1%) in the fourth quarter 2009, compared to the same period of the previous year, remaining +10.3% higher than in 4Q 2007 and +16.4% higher than 2008 for the full year in 2009. Many properties still failed to sell during their initial listing period in 2009, causing total DOM to increase during the market downturn. Even though the overall measure was slightly lower in the fourth quarter of 2009, changes by price range reveal that increases occurred in all ranges except for the <$200K range. Increases in the higher price ranges were substantial compared to those in the fourth quarter of 2008, and lower prices continue to carry Atlanta's overall real estate demand. The median of DOM segmented by Sales Price and New/Resale, shows increases in time on market for all but the resale segments below $300K. The variation … [Read more...]
My Examiner article entitled “Atlanta’s foreclosures have a big impact on prices”
This article first appeared at The Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner's page at examiner.com... Although multiple factors may have influenced median sales prices during this market downturn, foreclosure sales have been one of the biggest. "Expect the percentage of the portion of total sales in Atlanta represented by foreclosed properties to be high and to remain high for a few more years." Although the number of foreclosure sales fell somewhat after July, which contributed to somewhat more stable sales prices during that time, the impact of foreclosures in 2010 is expected to be significant. "On the Mortgage Banker's Association (MBA) conference call concerning the "Q2 2009 National Delinquency Survey", MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said: # The problem is moving to prime loans, and fixed rate prime loans. Although the delinquency rate is lower for prime fixed rate than for other loans, these loans make up 65.5% of all loans - so the increase matters. # … [Read more...]
My Examiner article entitled “Did Atlanta’s median real estate sales price reach bottom in January 2009?”
This article first appeared at The Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner’s page at examiner.com… Median sales prices appear to have reached bottom in January, 2009. But, there is a lot more to consider. The steep declines in median sales prices seen on the chart coincided with an acceleration in the number of foreclosed properties sold in each period. Now, in 2010, the word is out that foreclosure inventory, short sale inventory and distressed selling in general will lead the market...on another downward slide. In early May, the Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner will examine the latest charts and statistics from the first quarter of 2010. Until then, speculation abounds and a lot of the speculation is worthy of making plans for the worst, yet hoping for the best. And, hope is not a strategy. In the meantime, some national forecasting is worth considering. The federal government has stimulated a short term period of relative stability. The federal government … [Read more...]
My Examiner article entitled “Condo, loft and townhome prices on a 3 year slide”
This article first appeared at The Intown Atlanta Examiner’s page at examiner.com… The focus of most of the articles at The Intown Atlanta Real Estate Examiner's page will be on single family housing, but a question arose today on the Trulia Voices "Question and Answer" forum that merits a little more examination. The question is "What is the median sales price for a condo in Atlanta?" That's a fairly easy question to answer but a few folks requested more geographic clarity, and some questioned the intent so the questioner, a guy named Mark, further explained "I would say for the whole metro. Overall, I am looking into a condo but want to know their value in relation to a regular home..." Here's the answer: $144,000.00 through the fourth quarter of 2009...was $164000 in 2008 and $174000 in 2007. Condos, lofts and townhomes combined. The information comes from analyzing the First Multiple Listing Service data for sold listings across eight counties - Cherokee, Cobb, … [Read more...]