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The Rate of Decline is What Hurts the Worst

Cumulative 1Q 2009 monthly sales of single family detached residences are -20.2% below those of 1Q 2008. 1Q 2009 sales are down -43% compared to 1Q 2007.

How come most Seller’s fail to sell? Because they deploy hope as a strategy and because they are attempting to compete in a declining market that does not favor them.

1Q 2009 sales were lower in each month, compared to the same months in 2008 – furthermore,
January sales were down by only -12%, but sales worsened during February and March.

How come sales fell? Well, sales didn’t fall too much if you look at properties for sale under $200,000 – in fact that’s where most of the activity, more than 50% of the demand, measured in total closings, truly is.

However, sales, if they happened at all, fell because consumers are counting every penny, and so are the banks. Sales fell because there are way less buyers than there are sellers.

The rate of decline in sales during each quarter, compared to the same quarter of the previous year, increased substantially through 1Q 2008!

The rate of decline began to slow during the third and fourth quarters of 2008, but the sales decrease grew again in 1Q 2009…

Lets wrap this up – I’m going to post almost every chart and graph from the first quarter of 2009 that I can post over the next two months. I’m going to complete another market summary video. I’m going to appeal to all sellers to stay off the market unless they are serious about selling – there is no favor for the self-indulgent and the experimental, the hopeful and the “water testers.”

Just because you have a property ON the market doesn’t mean that it is IN the market…

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