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The Rate of Decline is What Hurts the Worst

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Cumulative 1Q 2009 monthly sales of single family detached residences are -20.2% below those of 1Q 2008. 1Q 2009 sales are down -43% compared to 1Q 2007. How come most Seller's fail to sell? Because they deploy hope as a strategy and because they are attempting to compete in a declining market that does not favor them. 1Q 2009 sales were lower in each month, compared to the same months in 2008 - furthermore, January sales were down by only -12%, but sales worsened during February and March. How come sales fell? Well, sales didn't fall too much if you look at properties for sale under $200,000 - in fact that's where most of the activity, more than 50% of the demand, measured in total closings, truly is. However, sales, if they happened at all, fell because consumers are counting every penny, and so are the banks. Sales fell because there are way less buyers than there are sellers. The rate of decline in sales during each quarter, compared to the same quarter of … [Read more...]

Treat Your Mother Right

THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR. Much love to all Mothers, and especially to my wife, the lovely Laura! … [Read more...]

Atlanta Listing Agents Ride The Tiger

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Yesterday, I repeated exactly what I heard from Shaun Rawls on Wednesday morning during a presentation dedicated to disseminating Chartmaster Chuck's Q109 charts. That 74% number will be more vivid soon, when I have copies of the charts - I also wrote down these notes, and they conflict with the 74% number: 79% of all listings were priced wrong 72.8% of OLP if you reduced just once 96.2% of OLP if you priced correctly Regardless of percentage point accuracy, the numbers are lame and it's ultimately our faults, Listing Agents. Most have overpriced listings that languish for months. There are few who have been at close to 100% of their game, and many who have consistently failed to win at least some of the time. Many who are no longer with us. I feel that The Rootdown Group was solid for 2008, but along came January through March 2009, and our listings have faced price reductions, multiple relists, and in a few cases, turning tail. We only had one … [Read more...]

Intown Atlanta Cocktail Chatter

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Q109 sales results are in Atlanta and I have a solid recommendation for your next cocktail conversation starter... but first, watch THE Barbara Corcoran make fun of midgets on the Today show last week. Here's the fundamental real estate statistic for metropolitan Atlanta, through March: "...Right original list price – 31 days and at 96.2% OLP. Wrong OLP, but still sold – 234 days and 78% OLP. BUT...74% of all listed properties and all previously listed properties that listed again between January and March, failed to sell at all..." Here's mud in your eye! … [Read more...]

Is Kirkwood a Safe Neighborhood?

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This is another post adapted from one of my "Trulia Voices" answers - I certainly write enough online, and I write enough meaningful content in my email communications with clients, everyday, so the discipline of choosing one good post a day isn't that difficult. The proof will be in my consistency. So, someone asked - is Kirkwood, my neighborhood, a safe neighborhood? Well, I live on an island in the middle of Kirkwood... I've lived here for 5 years. My wife and I are raising our young daughter here, and we join hundreds of other families in Kirkwood who are here doing the same thing. In addition, hundreds of people have lived in Kirkwood for decades and crime is always a concern-check out some other Trulia Voices Q&A on crime, and you'll see that this subject arises about Kirkwood and other Intown Atlanta neighborhoods, frequently. Yeah, so my island is called Hawthorn Park-a 47 home community of recently built houses with a lovely 6 acre park next to it. Before I … [Read more...]

Are Real Estate Prices Going Down in the Atlanta Area?

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This post is adapted from one of my answers on Trulia Voices today - if you aren't checking out this amazing forum for real estate information, then you should do so! Yes, absolutely prices are going down, but they are stabilizing - we've been in a "declining market" since June 2006. Certain submarkets are in freefall, still. Certain submarkets are more stable, and these have better real estate fundamentals than the others - better schools, less crime, better lifestyle amenities, etc. The question today came from someone "buying in Ansley Park' so lets just look at what's up in Ansley Park in the past 12 months for single family properties...in 2008, there were 23 sales. The lowest priced sale was a $440,000 3/2 on Flagler. The highest priced sale was a $1.25 Million 4/2/2 on Westminster. The average SOLD price in 2008 was $990,793. There were 6 SOLD properties in Ansley Park since January 1, 2009 - on average, they took 48 days to sell, and the average sales price was … [Read more...]