It's March 2009. I’m tired of talking about foreclosures, but a new wave is coming. Are the banks and the Federal Reserve ready? I have to believe that the days of the “bad commercial paper” and the combined sale of hundreds of mortgages as one convenient, supposedly "steady as she goes" investment vehicle are over. See my February 2008 article for a clear explanation - The Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis Explained in Stickfigures. I do know that Alt-A is the new Sub-Prime, and I thank investment scholar and all around smart, conservative guy, John Mauldin for helping me to know more about the details of bad mortgages, the ailing macroeconomy, the paper tiger in China, and the return of the Dark Ages to Western Europe…and lots of other details that do not make the mainstream media as often as they should. John is a straightforward advisor and his free newsletters are packed with smart information, every week That's right, John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and … [Read more...]

Across the months of 2008, sales were lower in each month, compared to the same months in 2007, until August when sales were equal to those of August, 2007. In September, 2008 sales were above those of September, 2007, but the lower trend resumed after volatility in the financial markets increased. As we look ahead and as we expect purchasing activity to increase, quite a few “potential” buyers are going to kick themselves for not getting their real estate on in a timely manner, when every purchasing term and condition is pretty much in their favor, right here, right now... … [Read more...]

Cumulative monthly sales of single family detached houses houses in Intown Atlanta continue to lag further behind those of 2007 throughout 2008. For the full year of 2008, sales are down -12.2% compared to 2007 and -23.7% compared to 2006. The downward quarterly percentage change trend has resumed after a flat 3Q 2008 trend, which shows us just how deep and wide the chasm is between buyers and sellers coming into 2009. I find it very interesting that the <$200,000 price range had a 36% increase in sales during 4Q 2008, which was spurred by foreclosures. The foreclosure percentage is still rising – 26.6% of 4Q 2008 sales across all price categories, 50% of sales in the <$200,000 price range. In a future post, I'll show you how foreclosures in the lowest price range act like a  "downward gravitational pull" on the rest of the market. We gathered this data from researching the following Intown Atlanta submarkets: Vinings, Inside the perimeter Sandy … [Read more...]